Thứ Tư, 30 tháng 4, 2014

Bill Vlasic's Once Upon a Car

This term I have my students reading 4 auto books:

  • Rudi Volti's short historical overview, (2004). Cars and Culture: The Life Story of a Technology, Greenwood Press, 2004.
  • Tom Wolfe '51, Kandy-Kolored Tangerine-Flake Streamline Baby, William Morrow, 1965. We were also fortunate to have him as a guest speaker, taking advantage of his visit to campus for the 11th annual Tom Wolfe Weekend Seminar funded by the Class of 1951.
  • Stealing Cars: Technology and Society from the Model T to the Gran Torino by John Heitmann and Rebecca H. Morales, just published by Johns Hopkins University Press. Prof Heitman will also be a guest speaker.
  • and finally
  • Bill Vlasic's Once Upon a Car: The Fall and Resurrection of America’s Big Three Automakers–GM, Ford, and Chrysler, William Morrow, 2011. If the GM story quietens, he might be able to join us for dinner in Detroit.

I call attention to the latter book, because we are reading it in conjunction with the visit of Bill Cosgrove '67, a retired Ford executive who worked directly with many of the people from Ford who appear in Mr. Vlasic's book. Mr. Cosgrove has read it a couple times (he also quotes from Maryann Keller's Collision Course), and will expect us to be familiar with the content.

To help with class discussion – at least one student should be familiar with any particular incident Mr. Cosgrove might bring up – and also because Vlasic's book is much richer than we have time to cover in class, students are preparing notes, selecting quotes and following up with questions. Those are divided into 3 pieces:

I've a good group of students, their notes are thoughtful and they pose good questions. If you've read the book, then they ought to be interesting, and if you're preparing to read it (an "ought to" for anyone reading this blog!), well, come up with your own questions!! This and more are found at Economics 244 at http://econ244.academic.wlu.edu

Bad idea, good idea

Why equip cars with external-sounding speakers? I thought you'd never ask. As it turns out, it can be a really bad idea. Or a really good one.

Here, for example, is a case where bad arguably prevails:


Source: Modern Mechanix blog

No doubt, the person who devised this system in 1931 thought it a brilliant, or at least entertaining, idea. Fortunately, common sense prevailed and the era of the "auto speaker," with its potential to scare the living daylights out of pedestrians, never came to pass.

But here's the thing: equipping cars with external-sounding speakers can be a great idea, when done for the right reasons. For example, some hybrid and electric vehicles are dangerously quiet for bicyclists and visually impaired pedestrians. Adding speakers to emit audible alerts or to project synthesized engine sounds can be just what the doctor ordered. Or rather, what the parliament ordered: earlier this month, members of the European Parliament stated that they want automakers to install acoustic alerting systems in hybrid vehicles by July 2019.

Mind you, safety isn't the only reason to project synthesized engine sounds. For example, fuel-saving techniques can make even powerful engines sound wimpy — a problem when high performance is a key ingredient of a car's branding. In that case, the automaker may wish to project synthesized engine sounds over both external and internal speakers. The speakers can help preserve the car's wow factor (provided they're not too loud) and the internal speakers, in particular, can make it easier for car owners who drive manual to shift gears by ear. The QNX concept car for acoustics offers a good example of this technology in action.

All of which to say, engine sound enhancement, also known as ESE, is here to stay. And it's not a bad time to be in the automotive-speaker business, either.

Thứ Tư, 23 tháng 4, 2014

The next chapter in car infotainment: seamless mobile integration

Tina Jeffrey
According to a survey from Forrester Research, 50% of North Americans who plan to buy cars in the next 12 months say that technology options will play an important role in their purchasing decisions. The fact is, consumers want to remain connected all the time; they don’t want to park their digital lifestyle while driving. This begs the question: what’s an automaker to do?

Allow consumers to bring in content and apps on their mobile devices. We are becoming increasingly attached to our smartphones, and this is driving a trend towards mobile-centric car infotainment. The trend is of particular benefit to buyers of low-end vehicles, in which built-in features such as navigation and speech recognition can be cost prohibitive. A smartphone-driven head unit reduces costs by leveraging the existing connectivity and processing power of the mobile device; it also provides easy access to apps the consumer has already downloaded. In fact, integration between the mobile device and head unit offers numerous benefits: it helps the car keep pace with the consumer-device lifecycle, it endows the car with app store capabilities, and it lets the car connect to the cloud through the mobile device, eliminating the need for a built-in connection.

Using the phone's connectivity and
processing power to deliver apps and
software updates.
Design in-vehicle systems to be compatible with all leading smartphones. To satisfy this requirement, the vehicle must support both proprietary and standards-based connectivity protocols, using Bluetooth, USB, and Wi-Fi. Automakers will need to deliver platforms that include support for CarPlay, iPod Out (for older Apple devices), DLNA (for BlackBerry phones and other devices), MirrorLink, and Miracast, as well as the solution that the Open Automotive Alliance (OAA) promises to reveal later this year. By offering this widespread connectivity, automakers can avoid snubbing any significant portion of their prospective customer base.

Leverage and enable the mobile development community to build the apps consumers want. With companies like Apple and Google now in the fray, native brought-in apps will be a certainty, but automakers should continue to embrace HTML5 as an application platform, given its ”write once, run anywhere” mantra. HTML5 remains the most widely used cross-platform application environment and it gives automakers access to the largest pool of developers worldwide. And, as the first W3C vehicle information API specification is ratified, HTML5 application developers will be able to access vehicle information and develop compelling, car-appropriate apps that become an integral part of our daily commute.

Chủ Nhật, 20 tháng 4, 2014

Peak Oil is Here

I will write a follow-up post asking what I got wrong and what (if anything) I got right with my analysis below.
When done, I'll put in a cross-link.

Discussions I've seen of peak oil focus upon it as an issue in geology: how many years until production begins to decline [name your fossil fuel]. As an economist, however, that's irrelevant, reflecting a misperception that underlies the 1980 Simon - Ehrlich bet. In an economy, there are many margins of adjustment. As a starting point what matters is rather the time path of real prices. Since this blog focuses on the auto industry, the second margin is fuel efficiency of vehicles. I won't get to the second piece for several paragraphs, and then only briefly.

The market price of a depletable resource need not follow any particular time path – many (silicon) are abundant beyond any likely need, and so the price reflects the costs of extraction and short-run shifts in demand and installed (extractive) capacity. Over time, however, we've extracted the most readily accesible reserves of petroleum, and "scarce" or not, price will rise. (Likewise, we're seeing an increase in demand, given the success of East and Southeast Asia – and above all China – in lifting much of their populations out of the grimmest sort of poverty.

The early years of the industry saw many technical improvements in extracting petroleum and refining and transporting it as gasoline. Combined with discoveries in the Persian Gulf, prices were relatively stable (and low) from the end of World War II (1946) through the early 2000s, albeit with a spike around 1981. Indeed, in the 1990s energy prices were at their lowest in human history, as per an earlier blog post, "Are Gas Prices High?," particularly if we take into account the rise in real (US) incomes.

On impulse I looked at prices for the first time in three years. As a devil's advocate let me suggest that we are now seeing peak oil, with prices rising and (my hypothesis) not falling here on out. Here are 3 graphs. First, here are import prices of petroleum in 3 large economies. Now my first caveat is that to Germany and Japan what matters is the price in (respectively) the Euro and the Yen, but during this time frame forex rates have not swung by even two-fold. Looking at post-1949 domestic U.S. prices gives the same story; as per the first graph, I've shaded in the 1990s to emphasize that prices were below the post-WWII trend through 2000, and significantly below the post-war trend when extended through early 2014.

But as an economist peak oil is about price trends, not levels. So for the final graph I calculated the price trend over 1976-2000 and compared it with the trend over 2001-2014 (I truncated the trends berlow where they intersect). In the first period, prices fell at 6.3¢ per year; in the second, they rose at an annual 15.4¢ rate. Now many things could affect this. In the short run, the Chinese economy may see a recession. The timing of when new production comes online is potentially lumpy, and can depress prices until global growth catches up. In the longer run, high prices encourage the development of alternatives; natural gas in the next decade, solar power thereafter. In other words, this is informal analysis, and is not embedded in a model that spells out alternatives in terms of rates of change on the demand and the supply side.

For the auto industry, there are several margins of adjustment. First, there's an improvement in fuel efficiency; my '88 Chevy pickup is lucky to get 10 mpg, my Chevy Cruze gets 35 mpg running up (and down) hills to get into town, and over a 25 mil stretch of highway driving I've peaked at 50 mpg. So in the short-run I've been able to offset the rise in prices at the pump – until I need to haul a load of rock dust. But if the trend continues, then the next 3 years will see prices up by roughly a half dollar, or about 14%. As a PACE judge the technologies I see suppliers bringing to market suggest that the industry can offset that magnitude of price increases for another decade. Thereafter alternative fuels and shifting driving habits provide additional margins of adjustment – in the normal week neither my wife nor I drive more than 75 miles in a day, well within electric vehicle range. My old house sits 50 feet from the regional natural gas pipeline. While not yet fully cost competitive (and then there's the base vs peak load issue), solar power is not a depletable resource, and natural gas is depletable, further from "peak" (and potentially renewable as a biofuel).

The underlying issue is the extent to which the industry should place bets of future high petroleum prices. Public policy, particularly in Europe, has already decided that. Whether (or rather at what rate) we will buy such vehicles – and adjust our driving habits – will be a function of prices. From the industry's perspective I am however not particularly worried about our running out of oil, even while believing that we're seeing peak oil.

Econ 244: The Auto Industry

Until end-May I will blog (with students) at Economics 244 (economics of the auto industry). Follow me there! the prof

Thứ Năm, 10 tháng 4, 2014

12 autonomous car articles worth reading

You know what's fascinating about autonomous cars? Everything. They raise as many questions as they do answers, and many of those questions drive right to the heart of how we see ourselves and the world around us. For instance, will autonomous cars introduce a new era of independence for the elderly? Will they change the very nature of car ownership? Will they reduce traffic fatalities and help make traffic jams a thing of the past?

Technically, legally, economically, and socially, autonomous cars are a game-changer. I like thinking about them, and I like reading what other people think about them. And just what have I been reading? I thought you'd never ask. Here, in no particular order, are 12 articles that have caught my eye in the last month.

So there you have it. I don't, of course, agree with every point in every article, but they have all taught me something I didn't know or clarified something I already knew. I hope they do the same for you.

Thứ Ba, 8 tháng 4, 2014

QNX helps drive new autonomous vehicle project

Have I ever mentioned the QNX-in-Education program? Over the decades, it has supported an array of university research projects, in fields ranging from humanoid robotics to autonomous aircraft. Harvard University, for example, has been a program member for more than 20 years, using QNX technology to measure and analyze ozone depletion in the stratosphere.

So, on the one hand, QNX Software Systems supports scientific and engineering research. On the other hand, it's a leader in automotive software. You know what that means: it was only a matter of time before those two passions came together. And in fact, QNX has just announced its role in DEEVA, a new autonomous car project from the Artificial Vision and Intelligent Systems Laboratory (VisLab) of the University of Parma.

A glimpse of DEEVA (Source VisLab).

The folks at VisLab already have several autonomous projects under the belts. Last year, for example, they launched a self-driving car that can negotiate downtown rush-hour traffic and complex situations like traffic circles, traffic lights, and pedestrian crossings. DEEVA incorporates the team's latest insights into autonomous drive and features a rich set of sensors that deliver a complete 3D view of the circumference of the vehicle.

With its 30-year history in safety-critical systems, QNX OS technology offers a natural choice for a project like DEEVA. According to Professor Alberto Broggi, president and CEO of VisLab, "in the design of our vehicle, we selected building blocks offering high reliability with proven safety records; the operating system powering the vital elements of the vehicle is one of those and is why we chose the QNX OS.”

The QNX OS controls several systems in DEEVA, including path and trajectory planning, realtime fusion of laser data and visual data, and the user interface.

You can read the press release here and see photos of DEEVA here

Thứ Tư, 2 tháng 4, 2014

GM & Toyota: Of course they generate scandals!

I'm part of a discussion list on Japan [hosted by the National Bureau of Asian Research in Seattle] where comparisons of GM and Toyota naturally arise. At the time of the Toyota unintended acceleration incidents there was lots of discussion of how this reflected Japanese culture. Now we find the same in Japan for how GM reflects American culture. Balderdash and bullshit.

Back in 2010 NPR's Morning Edition carried an interview with several Japan experts on the topic. Let me (re)quote pieces from 3 different people:

Corporate Gulf Between Japan, West

Kenneth Grossberg, professor of marketing at Waseda University in Tokyo, blames a gulf in corporate culture between the West and Japan. "It is proper behavior not to air linen in public. It is not considered a cover-up in terms of Japanese culture, it's considered proper etiquette. You don't talk about it," Grossberg says. ... Like many other Japanese companies, it's stuck to the Japanese way.

. . . . . .

"Many Japanese managers are convinced that the economics of homogeneity, of being ethnocentric, outweigh the advantages of being a globally integrated enterprise," explains Stefan Lippert, a former management consultant with McKinsey and Company who teaches at Temple University's Tokyo campus. ... Lippert says Toyota's appointment ... of Toyoda ... shows its commitment to tradition and to the Japanese way of doing things. Now, Toyota's troubles underline the stark choice faced by Japanese businesses.

. . . . . .

Jeff Kingston, Temple University's director of Asian Studies, believes the lessons are clear. "This has to be a turning point for corporate Japan, a wake-up call. ... They need to become less insular. They need to become more international. They have to regain some of that competitive edge that they had in the 1980s that made them into world-beating companies," Kingston says.

One NBR member who lives in Japan and reads the Japanese-language press, Earl H Kinmonth, then observed that

"It [NPR], like many reports at the time, explained Toyota's response to the stuck accelerator issue in terms of either a unique and insular Toyota culture, a unique and insular Japanese culture, or both." EHK went on to ask: "I have been reading of accounts of the unfolding issue(s) with GM. Not being a specialist in Japanese or American corporate culture and with no knowledge at all of corporate culture in "the West," I am finding it very difficult to understand what is all that different about the GM case compared to Toyota other than it involves different parts of cars."

In this case EHK hits the nail on the head. Here is my argument:

We can interchange "Toyota" and "GM" in listing factors behind their recalls.

In the Toyota case, it was in part an organizational structure where the right hand did not know what the left hand was doing, no common boss for brands in North America [Toyota of America, Southwest Toyota, Southeast Toyota – a tripartite geographic split dating to Toyota's initial entry into the US, when they lacked the resources & vision to market to the entire US], model proliferation [I counted 90 inside Japan, some effectively identical vehicles but with different names in different channels], later add-ons poorly coordinated [Daihatsu, Lexus], rigid personnel policies [rotations!] and hierarchy, MBAs at the top who emphasized cost cutting. The denouement was the sacking of Toyota's executive suite in 2009, with Akio Toyoda ascending to the top in June 2009. Reorganization on various levels coming bit by bit over the last 4 years.

In the GM case, it was in part an organizational structure where the right hand did not know what the left hand was doing, no common boss for brands in North America [each marque long had their own marketing, design & engineering staffs], model proliferation [effectively identical vehicles but with different names in different channels, later add-ons poorly coordinated [such as Saab and Saturn], rigid personnel policies and hierarchy, MBAs at the top who emphasized cost cutting. The denouement was the sacking of GM's executive suite in 2009, with a new board ascending to the top in July 2009. Reorganization on various levels coming bit by bit over the last 4 years.

We can interchange "Toyota" and "GM" in listing factors behind their recalls. To put it another way, I see no analytic benefits from resorting to "japanese" or "american" culture as an explanation. Indeed, in almost all cases [outside of discussions between anthropologists] the introduction of "culture" is a denial that the situation is capable of analysis using the tools of organizational theory, economics, or any other discipline: they're unique, end of story.

Certainly GM and Toyota each have their own "culture" (as do all large organizations). My sense, however, is that the culture of Toyota differs tremendously from that at Honda or at Nissan. Ditto Ford vs Chrysler vs GM – for the latter I've heard tales of consultants who worked for one finding themselves at a loss when their next project was with another of the Detroit Three. From my end, I hear very different descriptions of OEMs when I visit suppliers – which drives suppliers batty who are not versed in the auto industry and assume if they learn how to work with one, they know how to work with all.

I can't define "japanese" or "american" and I've not heard anyone else do so. And it's not for lack of a knowledge base. I'm fluent in Japanese and English, have lived in Tokyo for 7 years and rather longer in the US, have had kids in local elementary and middle schools in Japan and the US, have taught in high school and college in Japan and been around high schools and colleges in the US, have worked in Japanese and US organizations. All this is backed by reading in anthropology and sociology and organizational behavior and business history, and not just economics. Thus I can't think of a metric for judging whether Toyota differs from GM more than it does from Honda – my hunch is that if somehow we could devise an anthropological metric, we'd conclude that Honda differs more from either GM or Toyota than GM and Toyota from each other.

Before resorting to "culture" we must first try other, analytic explanations. Toyota and GM are both very large, multidivisional firms long dominant in their home markets, and with my analytic models, that's sufficient. Do their cultures also vary? So what – that's irrelevant!!

PS: I own a month-old Chevy Cruze with a 1.5L engine, for which I may well receive a recall notice. BTW it's a manual transmission Eco model, chosen because it has an interior that both my wife and I can endure – we found Toyota's interiors cheap and ugly, Ford's too busy – it has seats that are comfortable, and it's a fine drive on the winding ridgeline and holler bottom roads around my home in rural western Virginia. But I expect any vehicle I might purchase to get at least one recall notice. My reading of the data is that post-2009 GM vehicles come off better on that criterion that post-2009 Toyotas.

Can you power cars using AA batteries

What did you think of the post "Clubbing together for an electric revolution!" yesterday?

I am sure most of you must have realised that it was a spoof post.

"LipraLoof" is an anagram of APRILFOOLS

Unfortunately, you can't power cars using AA batteries yet.

Happy April Fools Day